Just to illustrate the point further: A quick look at google...

Just to illustrate the point further:

A quick look at google shows:

- Bill Ackman manages hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management. He has a history of producing impressive returns. In the 18-year period from 2003 to 2021, Ackman generated a 17.1% annualized return, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 10.2% annualized return.

- Since 1965, Berkshire Hathaway has produced an average annual return of 20% -- almost double the performance of the S&P 500 during the same period.

- The Fidelity Magellan Fund outperformed the S&P 500 in 11 years of his 13-year tenure, producing an average annual return of 29%.

If we plug this into an odds calculator you get the results below. I put a 50/50 chance for each year of beating the market or getting below average returns. Then calculated the odds by how many averaged out years these funds have

- For Bill Ackman to have beat the market 18 years in a row the odds are 0.00038146972%
- For Berkshire Hathaway, my calculator could not even calculate it because the % was so low
- For the Fidelity Magellan Fund and their 11 years, 0.048828125%

Now yes, I understand that these are annualized returns and so some years were losses. But averaged out, these funds all outperformed the market over these time periods so it's the closest I can get to true numbers. Perhaps someone who is better at math can give more accurate percentages and correct me if you disagree with these numbers.

What is immediately obvious though even if we assume these % figures are far higher (imagine 1-2% chance) that there's something special about the stock picking process at these funds. They clearly are doing something right. And it's not just them. Last I checked 1/3 of funds beat the market. That's a huge amount of people you can look at and go "if they can do it, so can I".

These % are so low that dismissing it as luck is a cop-out in my opinion. I think you can view this one of two ways. Inspiring beyond belief or dismiss it because you're not interested in being part of the top 1/3.