Yeah, Chalice run was ridiculous, even stupid. 4.5 bn valuation was like some new cryptocurrency with nice animated design. Somehow ARL hasn't even sniffed that valuation with 6.1 mln tonnes of nickel, compared to chalice ~ 800kt of nickel (Yes, there are copper and PGE elements as well, but so do we). That's really undescribable. Like ARL has been seen like very risky company.
Definitely not expert, but one of the reasons may be type of nickel. Sulphide forms get more attention because of low capex and high recovery rate. Ardea story runs back long time. Since the discovery of this massive deposit, no one had doubt it's world wide recognized scale, but question was processing laterite nickel. In drilling industry, I've heard from sources ( regular average guys) who have said it's MASSIVE and if they can turn it into money, it's life changing (hinting to laterite processing). They were older guys and knowledge is not up to date, but we see the mindset from decades ago. Technology and know-how has proven significantly. It's not like strongest partners like JC on board, start mining and realize, "oh, f**k, didn't turn out exactly like planned in PFS and DFS."
Even one of my friends asked if it's so big and presents so good numbers, why it's mkt cap is so low, why investors doesn't price in future growth ? Perhaps like Chalice did with 4.5bln mkt cap. That's actually a good question and I didn't know true reason, but I explained that first, participants/investors and market slash entire sector with one sword, if sector is in trouble, then there are no exceptions, even if mining cost per tonne is very low. That's not good example, because chalice hit 4.5bln valuation, while ARL couldn't surpass even half a billion during nickel squeeze. Secondly, I said investors are different and jump on board different times, some investors jump in very early, some investors jump in when ore reserves are proven, some investors jump in when PFS is completed, more investors jump in when DFS is completed, more investors jump in when mine is under construction, more investors jump in when mining starts and more investors jump in when company starts paying dividends. Each investor has different risk tolerance. But again, may be half good explanation, because investors were willing to buy up chalice with one single discovery but not ARL. It might be because they have large unexplored tenements and market reacts to sulphide discoveries better than to laterite discoveries but again, reserve difference is nearly 8 fold to ARL advantage. It reminds me covid time, when Pfizer was first one to start vaccine mass production and SP bearly moved compared to moderna, who was pretty much last one to start and they saw enormous SP run. I didnt do any analyze and dont know what was the reason because I saw it's only one time short event.
Somehow I feel that ARL is seen as a big risk, but again, why shouldn't chalice been seen exactly same risky. And they still have mkt cap ~ 4 times higher than ARL. May be investors are cautious because nobody really knows how big ARL share is going to be in goongarrie but on the other hand, investors couldn't think that chalice is going to fund entire mine by themselves. Chalice just should be taken as exceptional event. For me chalice is nothing compared to ARL. 40 years mining, which is very rare and delivering such EBITA, during that time they can develop many large scale mines, without losing in revenue by end of life in first mine. I just read once per fortnight same exploration section on ARL webpage and still can't believe my eyes how good is this company. I try to look another mining companies as investment opportunities but still can't find anything close to ARL. Always something that doesn't like and is better in ARL. Still buying as long as SP is attractive. I think true value will be released by the time mining starts in ARL and when they start developing new mine.
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