As previously stated, one of their (extremely rare) smartest...

As previously stated, one of their (extremely rare) smartest moves in recent times was tying the bondholders on to the equity side during the last raise.

Saying that, the bondholders are only in for US$25m via the con notes. This is a quarter of their debt exposure (but has obviously added even greater financial exposure).

They aren't going to recover all of the above via VA. No chance. So, they can let the company fail & pick at the low value carcass & see what they can recover - or they can go in deeper. Take what they can from the sale of Jervois' refining share of Kokkola, do a partial debt for equity swap, and/or issue more con notes, etc. We have no idea of which way they are going to play it.

The bond falls due in full in mid-2026. Prior to that, the Mercuria facility needs to be repaid in full by the end of 2024. And prior to that, another bond coupon payment needs to be paid in H2 2024 - which means July. With their cash burn, they are either currently in breach of their debt covenant re: minimum group liquidity or mighty close to that line - hence the waiver of the debt covenant to the end of July. With them not making any money, this breach is a fait accompli - unless a cash injection arrives by the end of July.

It has become very convoluted now due to the gross incompetence of the MD & the Board. They would all be sitting down together with the bondholders, Mercuria, AustralianSuper, bankers, etc & trying to nut out the best solution. Whatever the solution may be - whatever remains of this company will be razor thin pickings. No one is getting outta here without a serious capital haircut or much worse.

I'm riding this to its natural conclusion. I'm not a forced seller. But - I am expecting to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars here regardless of how it all plays out. Zero expectations of a price turnaround. I doubt even Uncle Sam agreeing to fund a domestic cobalt refinery would mean much to the SP. And I can't see that happening in the next 8 weeks. This is all coming to a head within the next 8 weeks. I trust everyone is aware of this point.