30+ years in the game & I have booked 2 losses in that time....

30+ years in the game & I have booked 2 losses in that time. Both involved selling too early.

I thought both companies were destined for VA - only for both to stage stunning turnarounds.

The first company was basically outta cash. They appointed a new MD, pivoted from iron ore to lithium and made a discovery - 10-bagging shortly after I had sold out and booked a 60% loss. Would have made A$400K if I had held on another month or so and risked the remaining 40% of my capital. The other was a biotech - it 15-bagged not long after I had sold it. Combined - selling early saw me give up A$500K in potential gains. I lost patience & allowed fear to dominate my thoughts.

The lesson I learnt was - when most of your capital has already been destroyed (am sitting on a paper loss of 90% of my original capital here with Jervois) - is it worth crystallising a loss for the tiny remaining amount of capital left or leaving the door ajar for a reduced loss or in the event of a miracle - breakeven or better? And yes - while I do believe in terms of the probability of outcomes that this company isn't going to survive or will survive in an emaciated form - I am prepared to risk that 10%.

I am also a non-resident for taxation purposes and cannot claim a capital loss on my tax return - so am not incentivised in that way - as some others are around this time of the year.

Each to their own, though. Others might feel that 10% of my remaining capital could be better deployed on other opportunities.

I'm riding this out. Have never ridden a stock into VA before. Will be a first - if that is how it plays out. I'm not preempting anything here. There is a faint chance that AustralianSuper step in at the last minute like they did with Syrah. Or that the bondholders and Mercuria help the company in some way. Unlikely - but the possibility remains.

And if the company does survive, I will still be looking to exit in the near future (and at a loss anyway - no doubt). I gave Bryce the full 5 years I promised him when we met in Tokyo in 2019. And I no longer have any trust in his competence as a MD or in him as a person. I've had extensive dealings with him over many years and he remains (by some margin) the most arrogant MD I have ever come across - and I have told him that. I hope he will learn some humility from this debacle, but I highly doubt it.

I won't be posting on these Jervois threads anymore, so I would like to wish everyone the best of luck. From 11c to A$1.02 and back down to 1.5c. It's been a crazy ride.