I find characterising the act of holding a position through a...

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wowtime100

120 Posts.

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05/06/24

22:04

Post #: 74184132
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Originally posted by Deme: ↑

30+ years in the game & I have booked 2 losses in that time. Both involved selling too early.

I thought both companies were destined for VA - only for both to stage stunning turnarounds.

The first company was basically outta cash. They appointed a new MD, pivoted from iron ore to lithium and made a discovery - 10-bagging shortly after I had sold out and booked a 60% loss. Would have made A$400K if I had held on another month or so and risked the remaining 40% of my capital. The other was a biotech - it 15-bagged not long after I had sold it. Combined - selling early saw me give up A$500K in potential gains. I lost patience & allowed fear to dominate my thoughts.

The lesson I learnt was - when most of your capital has already been destroyed (am sitting on a paper loss of 90% of my original capital here with Jervois) - is it worth crystallising a loss for the tiny remaining amount of capital left or leaving the door ajar for a reduced loss or in the event of a miracle - breakeven or better? And yes - while I do believe in terms of the probability of outcomes that this company isn't going to survive or will survive in an emaciated form - I am prepared to risk that 10%.

I am also a non-resident for taxation purposes and cannot claim a capital loss on my tax return - so am not incentivised in that way - as some others are around this time of the year.

Each to their own, though. Others might feel that 10% of my remaining capital could be better deployed on other opportunities.

I'm riding this out. Have never ridden a stock into VA before. Will be a first - if that is how it plays out. I'm not preempting anything here. There is a faint chance that AustralianSuper step in at the last minute like they did with Syrah. Or that the bondholders and Mercuria help the company in some way. Unlikely - but the possibility remains.

And if the company does survive, I will still be looking to exit in the near future (and at a loss anyway - no doubt). I gave Bryce the full 5 years I promised him when we met in Tokyo in 2019. And I no longer have any trust in his competence as a MD or in him as a person. I've had extensive dealings with him over many years and he remains (by some margin) the most arrogant MD I have ever come across - and I have told him that. I hope he will learn some humility from this debacle, but I highly doubt it.

I won't be posting on these Jervois threads anymore, so I would like to wish everyone the best of luck. From 11c to A$1.02 and back down to 1.5c. It's been a crazy ride.

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I find characterising the act of holding a position through a cyclical downturn as capital destruction kinda problematic.

Capital is "destroyed" upon exiting a position.

This post suggests the author is not planning to exit...

Throwing shit at Bryce because of his personality type is kinda irrelevant. I’m yet to read a succinct post from anyone on this platform outlining how someone would have played the JRV cards differently. Indonesia has flooded everyone in the Nickel and Cobalt space. Time and again people pointlessly pile on with character assassinations and sledging from the sidelines.

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I purchased ENPH in 2016 at $9.5 USD & sold in 2017 at $2.5 after the board sacked the founder... Where is ENPH now...

Learning from previous mistakes... self discipline... a clear trading routine or procedure are keys to investment success.

I've appreciated many of your contributions @Deme thanks for sharing.

JRV Price at posting: 1.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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