Ann: Jervois pivots Kokkola refinery expansion BFS to U.S., page-21

Good vid.

JD (excellent).

Trav (lukewarm).

Production of ternary batteries is about to be ramped up, so EV demand for cobalt will start making up a larger % of the total cobalt demand pie (which up until now - has been dominated by industrial demand). Expect large OEM orders of cobalt from 2024 onwards.

Cobalt can be engineered out by increasing the manganese content, but you need to drop the nickel content as well (75% nickel, 25% manganese or a ratio of 3:1). Doing that reduces the energy density, though.

4680 batteries (NCM811) are about to shine in the near term, but I agree that LT (beyond this decade) - a smart engineering cookie will work out the solution to maximising energy density without cobalt. For now, though, NCM811 is the sweet spot for maximising energy density - so range + power.

Also - EV adoption is an exponential trend, so think of the sheer numbers involved here. I'd caution against writing cobalt off too quickly.

Cheers.