Fair enough
My point is it is the operational results that will drive the company value in the long run, without that ( free options not withstanding), the company is/ has nothing.
If one believes the gifted options are holding the share price back, then that will IMO come to an end as the options are converted or expire and that " arbitrage" disappears by 30 June 2022. In the meantime, the company will drill the Rangers well, at the higher equity, funded by the recent CR. If the results are analogous to the Jewell, and then repeated by Flames ( funded by cashflow and option conversions) with 12 or so months, the true value add via cashflow, and certification of the at least 15 MMBOE oil, NGL and gas reserves ( not including the ~2.5 MMBOE in the 320 acre Rangers addition) will be more than obvious.
What the market decides to do with those outcomes in "rewarding" the company's share price is anyone's guess. IMO, DP and the Black Mesa team won't give a rats arse , because they will have the cash/ cashflow to continue to build a significant asset base. Even if the market doesn't reflect the embedded value, then at the appropriate time and when the asset base has significantly grown, the team will transact in a manner which will reflect the value of that asset base.
It will be fairly easy to see where the value lays. The asset base will be the undeveloped acres held within operated DSU's, or material positions in non operated DSU's. If the acreage is held within the SWISH AOI, one can be confident to a very high degree (that the BRK rule of thumb will apply as confirmed by the Jewell well, along with the results of offset operators) , that each ~1280 ( 2 unit DSU) will hold ~10 million BOE reserves on a 100% WI interest where that reserve is oil and raw gas . eg ( NGl's not yet extracted from the gas)
So when BRK eventually , within the next 5 years or so, hold 10-15000 net acres of prime undeveloped acreage, with a significant portion held by production via an initial well in each DSU, it will be vey easy to work out the in ground value of those reserves . Does anyone think the market is valuing BRK right now anywhere close to a company that is holding ~3.8 million barrels of oil which is selling at US$ 80 a barrel, 6.65 million barrels of NGL's which are selling at US$25-35 a barrel, and ~ 28 BCF gas which is selling at~ US$5 per MCF.... it is not as if these reserves are 100 Km off the west Aussie coast, or onshore Perth Basin where they are still 2-3 years from production. These reserves are literally surrounded by infrastructure in the hungriest energy market on the planet and can be brought into production within 4-5 months from the drill bit first breaking ground.
Those that are prepared to stay the course, IMO will be handsomely rewarded, as will the BRK and Black Mesa team because they will not give the company, or it's assets away cheaply.
Each to their own based on their personal circumstances... the grass is not always greener on the other side of the fence, sometimes it just takes a bit longer for your grass to be seen to grow.
That's my take on the situation.
Cheers
Dan
(20min delay)
