Speaking of recoveries, the oil market has been something to behold. Crude oil prices are up 50% this year, and ‘negative futures prices’ that we saw in May last year are a distant memory. The world is no longer ‘awash with oil’ with economies emerging from lockdowns with a spring in their step, while OPEC is holding the line on production increases.
There is clearly some bickering within the cartel on the extent to which the taps should be turned back on. I think that US$70-US$80 oil probably suits most of OPEC quite well, although they will probably not want to see prices overshoot to a point (perhaps US$100) where prices are a handbrake on consumption, and as alternative supplies (US shale) step up.
We are due for an update. Let’s strike the iron while it’s hot.
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