Sure, my opinion will be different to others. Regards the L1...

Sure, my opinion will be different to others. Regards the L1 Capital sell off stopping around the same time negotiations with the Chinese started up (by my estimation) is that it's hard to imagine L1 were not given the heads up to stop selling so HAS could do a deal and bring in new investors at a better price... which is of course very much in L1's interest. Who knows what really went on, but I'm not a big beleiver in coincidence...

"Based on current manipulated NdPr prices - there's very few "economic deposits" ex-china." agreed.

"There's due to be a supply gap of ~57k tons by 2032 - what other shovel-ready projects can fill this supply gap within this timeframe? "... two parts to the market obviously, demand and supply. Demand has not kept up with early predictions, partly due to slower EV take-up, partly due to EV producers looking to avoid the risk of critical supply chain catastrophe imo. Tesla first broadcast this strategy in MAr'23 telling the market they were going with Fe-perm-mag motors, especially in the cheaper volume end of the car market. Others are/will also look to go Fe-perm-mag motors of which there are a number of very good RE-perm replacement designs kicking around. Or they will go brushless externally excited induction motors, which basically use no perm-magnets but induction magnets which have some big benefits to go with some negatives... basically on par with RE-Perm-Mag motors for performance and efficiency but more expensive.

Sure you can see the attraction for EV makers to just avoid the whole no RE critical mineral and no western magnet makers conundrum and risk by just using different magnets and motors. There is one company called Niron is trying to prove their nitride based super-magnets can be produced at industrial scale in their US pilot plant, time will tell if they are successful.

On the other side is the supply of RE, or NdPr mostly as for Yangi, there are a huge number of prospective deposits to fill whatever supply gap eventuates. Keep in mind there are no profitable western Re-magnet producers outside of Japan, and even Japn are probably marginal compared to Chinese magnets. The bottleneck for RE miners is western companies to build and operate monazite cracking plants, RE refining of MREC into RE-oxides, production of NdPrFe metal feed for others to finally produce RE-magnets... there is a mismatch between all the RE-feed LYC, ILU and all the others can supply vs somebody to buy it and make magnets.

HAS and Wyloo first need to haggle over that debt due in a little over 12 months with nobody predicting a sudden run up in RE prices to save HAS from entering debt servitude?