28 People got Jobkeeper in FY21 (none in FY20). $286.5k/28 = ~10.5k each. Jobkeeper is $1500/fortnight. that's 7 fortnights, so lets cut that at 1 qtr worth of jobkeeper. Would imply that someone got jobkeeper from June-September, Can't be Oct-dec or Jan-Mar as they were reduced rates.
I think this is likely to be Watts Mccray. Let me demonstrate why with 3 data points:
1 - AFL Core business in 1hFY21 did 32.2%+ Revenue YoY. And for 1Q FY21 did +34% YoY. Jobkeeper needs -30% eligibility.
2 - Watts is quoted to be doing $6m in revenue in the period before acquisition, but with the 1H combined figures for FY20, if you include AFL as well we have 7.52m - 4.37m = 3.15m, stated in line with expectations. But in the most recent update we say that for July-August it is +44% for watts mccray, seems like july-sep were particularly poor months last year.
3 - Stronglaw & Kordo's are both too small to have 28 people getting Jobkeeper. The only one that makes sense is Watts.
Why I am not worried. Watt's Mccray initially was purchased for $1.5m in cash and $1.3m deferred consideration. This deferral is important as it states minimum performance conditions. Upon asking Grant this question he had stated that it was for the business to do atleast 6m revenue each year. Combine this with Stace Boardman's organic revenue incentives and we have a pretty strong risk/reward scenario where if it does not meet expectations we get a bit of purchase price relief upon not meeting consideration targets over the next 3 financial years.
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