I think there are some important points in your analysis. I agree - it looks like WM had some serious issues in early FY21 being before the AFL acquisition.
AFL's share price has lost momentum over the past 9 months or so. I think this is a result of both concerns about organic revenue growth and profitability. I suspect that WM may explain both these concerns to a large degree.
If WM's revenue was less than expected - then the revenue of the remainder of the business was correspondingly higher. As you point out, AFL's last market update suggests WM's revenue has bounced back.
I also suspect that WM has some bad debt issues and other one off acquisition / synergy type costs that depressed AFL's FY21 profits. If these are one off issues then AFL's FY22 profits should bounce back.
I also factor into this that ads on seek.com suggests that AFL went on a bit of a hiring binge in July / August 2021.
Whilst the behaviour of the share price is a concern, the above may suggest that we can expect better results in FY22 and resumed upward movement in the share price.
Naturally the above is my opinion only - DYOR etc.
L2
AFL Price at posting:
42.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)