Once again the full story has come out too late; Gulf are tax scheme promoters helping offset high income eaners' tax bills rather than a true oil and gas company seeking toaximise their own return on capital. IMO this ought to have been properly disclosed in full earlier than the final funding announcement. A 4 to 1 free carry without a capital clawback prior to profit sharing provision always sounded too good to be true to me, and it appears that it has been: remember that the initial MOU required a minimum investment of 9 mm bucks and significant ongoing prepaid monthly investments? What happened to that??? As to the reason explained by Seligman for why the amount of initial funding dropped so significantly and the deal itself changed, again I'm highly sceptical. Fiscal cliff was always about increasing the income rate on the top 2 percent of tax payers.. I never read anything in the press during the fiscal cliff discussions about changing the taxation of depreciiation for the oil and gas industry. Obama / Congress would be crazy to reduce incentives to produce oil domestically rather than increase reliance on Middle Eastern oil. Particularly the nationalistic Right wing of the Republican Party which really was controlling the debate. I suspect that Gulf strUggled to raise much money despite a very buoyant WTI oil price because investors couldn't get comfortable with the type curve of each well, meaning that despite the front ended tax benefits, investors couldn't get comfort that their investment would pay out. These investors will be unlikely to recycle their capital when their initial investment struggles to pay out as 'fairway / Proved' wells water out in days or weeks. Once again management and shareholders are suffering from chronic over promising and under delivering. I remain short this stock and may increase my position following the quarterly which I expect to be massively window dressed given the overall markets' heavy reliance on it, resulting in a short, sharp early February rally before the slide resumes towards the 30's. Again I have disclosed a position but it is a short position; the disclosure toggle doesn't allow for disclosing a short position.
FDM Price at posting:
61.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
