Just as clarification on your point about future cost...

Just as clarification on your point about future cost contributions: as I have understood it, if there is an increased capital requirement of let's say $25mil (as I assumed in the workings) above the $143m required under the BFSU, that would mean an increase of $25m above the $143m previous calculated equity gap (which has currently been filled by the $130m buy-in contribution and the $13m placement proceeds in SFX). Therefore, as I calculate it under that scenario, SFX would be on the hook for the $13m (less, let's say 50% of $6mil spent on early stage construction and BFS etc) which would mean they'd have to stump up $10m ($13m - $3m), and then $12.5m being 50% of the $25m increase.

If they currently have $13m in the bank (?), that would mean after paying out the $10mil they owe to Kimberley for the $143m equity gap, they would have $3m left in the bank (maybe enough to keep the holding company running for 18 months), and would have to raise $12.5m (hopefully at 55c or higher) to cover their 50% share of the increase capital requirements.

I agree that a loan from Yansteel would be handy, would alleviate the need for a CR if the equity gap does increase above $143m, and as you explain would make sense within the context of the overall JV history. However, if that is too much to ask, I think an underwriting of a CR at realistic valuations (maybe 60c) to prevent institutions screwing shareholders through market price suppression, would be a good compromise.

I too am tired, SFX has truly been an ordeal, but to lose faith now, when all the hard yards seem to have been taken, and whats left is the 'unfolding of the last three pairs of cards in the game of memory' would seem very unfortunate. The very fact that YS paid-up to 37.5c for the project when there wasn't any other funding in place, when the sp was 10c, is very telling about the long game value of TB. I'm sure they didn't do so because they are pushovers, they also had the trump card allowing them to withdraw anytime if 'their lenders didn't agree with the JV', which just a week ago they agreed to. The fact that the $130m actually landed less than a week ago, after a delay which may well have been a delay of 'let's wait and see what the numbers look like', is further support for the argument that, from the inside, all is on track.