Whilst this is exciting news and the overview is both comprehensive and encouraging, I don't think it'll send FFX's SP to the moon just yet.
Here are the conditions precedent: - Chinese regulatory approvals - Approval of transaction by shareholders of Firefinch, if such approval is required - Approval of transaction by shareholders of Ganfeng - Applicable Malian government approvals and consents, including any relevant transfer of mining licenses
Whilst this announcement has significantly de-risked Goulamina, there is still the remote possibility of one or more of the conditions precedent not being met. What happens to FFX's SP then?
Here's the timetable: - Up to 35 business days to finalise long form agreements (key terms in Binding Term Sheet) - 3 months for PRC regulatory approvals - Ganfeng Initial Investment (US$39m) expected in December 2021 quarter - FID and Ganfeng Final Investment (US$91m) expected in June 2022 quarter - Ganfeng arranged debt anticipated 4 months after FID
I don't expect the demerger to happen this calendar year. TBH I expect it to happen by about this time next year, given that it appears to be contingent on Ganfeng putting its entire $130m investment in the pot.
Not trying to poop on the party here (as someone that's been here from the BGS days, I'm just as keen to see FFX go to the moon as anyone), but methinks Mr Market will deliver a reality check in the coming days. On the plus side, the new resistance probably won't be any lower than 0.50.
