I agree with most of that but one could argue that technically speaking, consensus estimates were already anticipating no bottom line growth H-on-H. Consider:
1. 21 Feb: HY report showed PBT of $53.2M (NPAT of $36.1M)
2. 1 May: Investor day presentation showed FYTD to 31 March PBT of $87M, so they added $33.8M in the quarter. If they were to at least replicate that in the final quarter they’d have finished at $120.8M, however…
3. Leading into today’s report, according to GS’s note, both GSe and VA consensus was PBT $107M and NPAT of $73-74M which is bang on where they ended up…
What the above numbers do show (expected or not) is a slowdown in the final quarter. Also a big tick up in 90+ days past due at the same time. Would be happy to see a bounce but I suspect this’ll trade cautiously for some time until more data comes out?
I agree with most of that but one could argue that technically...
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