If we look at it from a relative valuation perspective, AIA is currently trading at a Trailing-Twelve-Month EV/EBITDAFI (excluding property revals) of 18.90, while its most direct comparable SYD is trading at a TTM EV/EBITDA of 22.10.
The spread between long-term AUD and NZD government bond yields (20 basis points, as we speak) does not justify that valuation gap, and from a purely fundamental perspective AIA’s market position is unchallenged (for the foreseeable future) by the construction of a second airport, unlike SYD.
So, even from that perspective, the valuation gap looks unjustified to me.
If we were to value AIA at the same EV/EBITDA (excluding financial items) as SYD is currently trading, the implied AIA share price is 7.10A$, 22.4% above the current SP.
And I am by no means suggesting that SYD is currently overvalued, on an absolute basis.
IMHO & DYOR
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** SORRY, ERRATUM ABOVE ** Omitted to convert some items in the calculation by the FX rate
Here are the correct figures:
AIA TTM EV/EBITDAFI: 20.40
Implied AIA SP at a 22.10 EV/EBITDAFI (as for SYD) = 6.42A$
Upside to implied SP = 10.7%
But, again, I am not taking that implied SP as being a reflection of "fair value".
Cheers
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As a curiosity, AIA has now closed its valuation gap with SYD: at today’s price I see both trading at a TTM EV/EBITDA of 21.25.
For a number of reasons (freehold of land, no change in forecast tax rate, no building of second airport), I do think AIA should trade at a premium to SYD, though.
Still looking like very good value to me.
IMHO & DYOR
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Last
$7.06 |
Change
0.020(0.28%) |
Mkt cap ! $10.42B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$7.08 | $7.13 | $7.05 | $1.678M | 237.1K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 4042 | $7.05 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$7.09 | 1320 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3000 | 6.980 |
1 | 15 | 6.960 |
1 | 400 | 6.950 |
1 | 140 | 6.930 |
1 | 1750 | 6.900 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
7.110 | 900 | 1 |
7.140 | 12 | 1 |
7.190 | 1449 | 1 |
7.200 | 752 | 2 |
7.250 | 11364 | 1 |
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