Hi Beardy,
I agree with you. Atlas is paying interest on debt that is drawn and not used. I think the market would react very positively if they just ran their existing operations at 12Mt for cash for say 3 years. Build up a cash balance and stopped paying interest on drawn unused debt.
Today's announcement is a little 'odd' to me. Why not outline a alternative strategic plan with a delay in it.
FY15 capex = 122m, FY16 capex = 0m, FY17 capex = 0m
Assume all in cash costs = $aud75/t
Assume spot average $US105 and Currency 0.92 for the next 3 years.
calc $US105 = $AUD114 * 85% (grade) +94% (moisture) = $AUD91
So 12Mt * 3 * (91 - 75) = $576m - 122m = $454m
End FY17 net cash = $454m
THEN restart expansion using cash.
Thinking is that in 2-3 years all new supply will have been absorbed by the market, the currency will be lower if Iron ore is lower and China's domestic production that is unprofitable will have shutdown.
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