When that happened I believe they were very close to commercial flows and thought they were about to get there (hence the AGM comments about "I wish we were doing this meeting next month instead of today as we would have a different story to tell").
Then the pumps cavitated.
They then tweaked and tried different things for a while to try and get it over the line - they ultimately decided to take the hard decision and go back to a larger pump arrangement. It then took several months to order equipment and construct above ground facilities to handle a much higher HP pump system and flows. The wells were then shut-in for about 5-6 weeks which basically re-charged them with water (pressure).
Then several months of pumping to get it back to a lower pressure formation where we start to see that type curve re-emerge again.
You can see where 8-9 months have crept up on everyone. Not great, but explainable given they are doing something that hasn't been done before at this depth.
In the quarterly they have said that they have started to see that type curve process again. So a betting man would say that it cant be too far away where the gas flows build as it did previously.
As for a flow rate. I think they will be looking for 200-300 mscf/d of stable flow to announce to the market (initially). As MIR suggested these wells can take many years to increase to their full potential (especially as they have more in-fill wells around them). They will no doubt want to continue to delineate the area and update continually as to new well performance, as well as the increasing flows from exisiting production wells as those flows increase over the long term.
I am sure the company have some modelling around an ultimate EUR / flow rate from a 5yr+ old well, but your guess would be as good as mine at this point.
STX Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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