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01/08/17
12:17
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Originally posted by MagicSeven
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In every investment there is a peak. And before the peak you should have done your job. And here we have tgs who have already missed that peak.
What are the most important thing you should know about mining companies??
Important Factors (for tgs - risk factors!):
1) LOM
2) aisc
3) corporate/overhead costs
4) interests/debts
5) cashflow or cashdrain
6) weather (beacause tgs can't handle it!)
7) expansion
8) by or other products
9) negative peak?
(is reached when some critical
parameters are given)
So let's c where tgs is now?
1) LOM is down now to about 15 years?
Every year we lose to make money and
LOM is going down the company isn't
able to secure new plants/investments.
You can also call it "calculated
depreciation". And the shareprice will
fall to "0".
2) AISC would be nearly at same q1 lvl if
you add mining costs what they've
stopped beginning of q2!!! So to
compare same aisc costs (incl. mining costs) you should add many cents on top
of 2.28$/lb and than we have the real and
same bad aisc as we had it in q1.2017! So
no progress and the same s..t as every
quarter!!!
3) not included in aisc!!!
4) they had clearly mentioned in their
q2.2017 report that they can't afford
repayments. And that with a current
lucky cp of 2.90!!! Yeah not able w 2.90
to make repayments!!! Interests are still
unpaid (capitalized and shares as
royalties!!!)!!!
5) cash is nowhere... cashdrain if interests
were paid and we would have been
*ed many times...
6) this "experienced" mining mgmt wasn't
repaired for the last usual rainy
season. So what do think how they will
be prepared for the upcoming one????!!!!
7) 2016 w/o vs 2017 with expansion:
Result:
2016 ~ 26kt produced copper
2017 ~ 8.3kt produced first half 2017
(30% below 2016 and 50% below
budget!!)
and millions of $ lost in not working
amateur-repairs instead of a well
working debottlenecking design!
8) cobalt is dead for a decade!
9) negative peak? Yes already reached.
Nearly every critical parameter above is
reached!! You all know them now!!! Use
your brain and count them on yr own!!!
The horrible tgs-success is just endless...
Expand
Magic Man...would you invest in such a company...probably no. However whilst it is in suspension, holders have little choice but to sit tight and reassess their position.
Toughest decision to take in any investment is to crystalise a loss, especially a big loss and move the remaining funds into someone else that can earn some growth.
For now TGS is not 100% loss, it will resume trading so long as Copper sits above 2.75/lb and the lenders see the chance of recovering their funds.
But looking at the bigger picture, everything is stacked against them, weather and sovereign risk just to name a few that will continue to rears its head going forward.