Hm, maybe that is the scenario we all have been missing. If the...

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kojak78

1,538 Posts.

1134

02/08/18

20:19

Post #: 34696844
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Originally posted by Samboy69 ↑

Large buying wall sitting ot 13.0c for a week now, 1.3M volume constantly topped up with hourly buying small parcels at 13.5c like yesterday.

The Investec options are a mere A$5M so the dilution is nominal at 18c.
Let it go past 20c-30c and they can have their shares which is good for TRYs cash position and good for Investec getting cheap shares. Investec looks to be a future partner long term now with very friendly terms and supportive policy to TRY and their loan and shares have been a profitable money spinner for them.

If I was Investec I would want more shares cheap and more debt lending to TRY but TRY dont need it.
Let the lenders clamour to TRY to fund the next BIG developments which would be the mill upgrade, super pit, nearby mine purchase and smarts underground yet they dont look like they need any loans for these next year at all with an extra U$6M FCF pQ or U$24Mpa FCF on current rates from January.

The smarts 3 extensions and spearpoint results are a massive boost to TRY that the market has ignored thus far. This has alone boosted LOM by 2 years and doubled the LOM/resources yet market doesnt see it yet. Once the JORC reserves and resources report is issued likely the next 2-6 months doubling TRY LOM we should see the market finally respond to this as the drill results have been stunning.

The May preso to the South American Perth conference showed a well advanced/detailed strategy of drilling, mine extensions and resource building well above what the market gives credit for hence why the share price went up to a 2 year high then.

This shows that the market wants to see these reserves and LOM upgraded and then will rerate TRY, if TRY gets to DRM peer level reserves (should be) at lower debt/cash and similar costs/production then TRY should rerate to DRM MC levels of 35c.

There hasnt been a reserve upgrade for a while yet hundreds of stunning new drill results have been released.
Upgrade the reserves and the share price will rocket up. Simple.

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Hm, maybe that is the scenario we all have been missing. If the share price is above 18 cents Investec will be forced to use the options because of the two year term running out in April 2019.

TRY Price at posting: 13.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Hm, maybe that is the scenario we all have been missing. If the...

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