TRY 0.00% 3.0¢ troy resources limited

Another very strong report better than the market expected:- -...

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    Another very strong report better than the market expected:-
    - production stable and well above Q1 Q2 (my estimate spot on & as they guided)
    - AVRP stunningly strong $1308 (my est 1300-1310 spot on)
    - gold sales yet again exceeded production by 1140oz (my est 2000) & very strong
    - revenue stunningly strong still U$27.1M v $30.6M and some U$10MpQ better than Q1 Q2
    - AISC higher at U$895 (my est 630) but way lower than Q1 Q2 still 1240/1017,
    - stockpiles still a whopping 167T (2 months) same as Q3! Way higher than my est of 1 month)
    - FCF & cash on hand thereby lower but FCF still double/triple Q1 Q2
    - cash used to sharply paydown debt and trade creditors (cash -$2.5M but TC/Debt -$9.4M)
    - trade creditors slashed sharply to U$18.3M down from $31M last year! Stunning turnaround.
    - guidance increased yet conservative (65-75) yet H1 annualised is at 82.4Koz
    - stunning drill results and expansion of smarts 3 pit revealed
    - the mill feed was way lower looks due to rainy season yet head grades strill elevated at 3.19%

    So in summary:-
    - The FCF and sales were substantially used to sharply paydown debt and trade creditors, very wise
    - FCF is double/triple Q1 Q2 so travelling at U$44Mpa right now for 2019 FYR (H1 annualised)
    - the AISC were higher as they didnt use barely any stockpiles (same level as Q3)
    - they sold the bullion down by U$2M and pumped that to the creditors
    - stockpiles untouched and at records still, heavy rainy season survived with full reserves unused
    - debt and creditors slashed sharply and way ahead of schedule

    Looks to me like TRY has substantially boosted its financial position & reserves, slashed deb whilst retaining stocks, revenues, sales, production & cashflows at strong levels and boosted guidance. This appears to be the consolidation of what has been a responsible and well managed operation that is gearing up to the next expansion phase and is well ahead of target to be debt free with U$40M cash at bank by 30 June 2019 imho

    But the most important news was the smarts 3 & spearpoint approvals and expansion as both appear to be much larger and higher grade than first thought. More stunning high grade drill results released. The speculation that smarts 3 & spearpoint were small short mines has proven completely wrong and in fact its the exact opposite. The head grade at 3.19% is still close to the 3.27% of Q3. These are larger higher grade and longer than thought as I estimated they would be. Smarts 3 can go on and on down the line imho.

    The markets doubt as to legacy issues as to LOM and finances have been smashed yet again by this Q4 report. Debt free, trade creditors slashed and FCF flowing strongly toward a U$40M bullet by 30 June 2019. An amazing undervaluation.

    Whilst disappointed with the AISC, the rest is absolutely stunning and well above market expectations.
    TRY is set up to be the new SBM, no doubt about it, should be at 35c imho

    TRY will FLY!
    Last edited by Samboy69: 25/07/18
 
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