The other thread was getting incredibly long and hard to find the "good stuff". There is a good chance that tomorrow a lot of people will consider buying this as it is likely to open up very strongly. So I thought that I would repost the best bit of research on the company...
Cash $4.5m + $2m holding in listed assets/stocks (some still to be issued) As well as this GCR are carried for $18.3m in exlploration by JV's including TRO, ZFX, Vale and Inco to name a few
Mkt Cap @4c = $25m Current
Mkt Cap @10c = $63m Target made up of 50% of Current Mt Isa EV and 10% of LOW CASE NPV for Copper Hill + cash and listed assets royalties etc
Mkt Cap @19c = $120m Current Mt Isa EV + 20% NPV of LOW CASE NPV @ Copper Hill
Pros - Exisiting infrastructure, rail, town, workforce, equipment etc etc - Very low waste to ore ratio 0.6:1 this reduces the cost of hauling dirt, for example an operation grading say double Copper Hill but had a waste to Ore ratio of say 2:1 would be less economical as alot more dirt is required to be moved etc etc SO THIS IS A MAJOR FACTOR - Copper Hill copper concentrates contain no deleterious elements and may attract a price premium. (further metallurgical test work is required) - Current NPV indicates a very very large return - Located in Australia = very safe and mining friendly nation to operate it albeit with Environmental green tape
Cons - Huge Cap Ex = requires the backing of a major partner via either direct farm out or perhaps even offtake with commodity groups etc - Low grade ore = high cost production (partially offset by low waster ratio) but = requires premium base metals prices to be profitable
NPV Also here you will find the companies NPV calcs http://www.goldencross.com.au/properties/copper-hill/default.html
It is clearly shown that even using a $600 AUD Gold price vs Current $950+ and a $2.65 AUD Copper price vs current $4.20+ an 8Mt p.a. operation will generate an NPV of $270m ($600m - $330m)
Now even if GCR farmed out 80% of this project to be free carried, that would still = a Net Attributable NPV of $54m = 8.5c
I'm not saying hey Copper Hill is worth Millions I'm just saying given the balance of the pros and cons I think you can just cross of Copper Hill as adding value to GCR, but do agree to really take the project seriously the funding via a JV or Offtake needs to be established, I'm still waiting on confirmation of this.
p.s. There is also the EXPLORATION POTENTIAL at Copper Hill, I'd say they are looking to find higher grade satelite ore bodies etc
Projects Mt Isa Phosphate, 20% Free Carried by Legend Corp, Qld near Mt Isa and near to Incitecs exisitng Phosphate mine
Qld Govt Historic JORC 500Mt's@15%Phosphate
Now this is a historic resource and the only reason it deosn't meet the JORC standard is because it was defined prior to the existance of the JORC code, ie any deposits no matter how ell defined that were established prior to the JORC code don't meet it, but really its just a technicality
See for yoursefl on the Qld Govt Minerals Database http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/493685.htm http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/491206.htm http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/494076.htm http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/494100.htm
GCR's JV partner is Legend International a major Phosphate player in Aust, for more info on Legend see http://www.lgdi.net/
Now Legend are working towards getting the whole project area towards production, they recently completed a scoping study and have an updated presentation which shows cost etimates, margins, production scenarios and resulting profit scenarios as well as timelines etc well worth a look http://www.lgdi.net/images/docs/17040823215.pdf
Valuing Mt Isa EV Legend current shareprice = $3.90 with 200m shares fully dilluted its MKT CAP is now $780m US = $860m AUD
Legend has a NET 1.3Bt's@15% Phosphate (1.4Bt's but 100mt's is GCR's)
$860m With 1.3Bt's@15%Phosphate = 66c per tonne ore @15% Phosphate
GCR has 20% of 500Mt's@15%Phosphate = Net 100Mt's
@ 66c/t = $66m 10.5c GCR
To keep an eye on Legends share price ann's and mkt cap see http://www.lgdi.net/inc/redirect_share_price.php but remember the Mkt Cap given doesn't take into account the 20m or so options and thus is 10% under what it should be
Conclusions - Based on my prefered valuation the EV GCR is worth 8c+ on Mt Isa alone -GCR is one of only 4 ASX listed companies with an actual Agricultural deposit - GCR's deposits are between 60kms-150kms from IPL's operating Phosphate Mine - GCR's project is part of a bigger project for big brother Legend kinda like the CUL/AQA relationship, the big brother has the deep funding pockes and expertise needed to advance these projects to production allowing GCR to advance its many other projects - Copper Hill maybe in OFFTAKE discussions which would be a very important milestone for the company - The company has many JV's and other projects from NSW to QLD to Panama to Canada
(20min delay)