I've only seen a couple of models from way back, but they are quite detailed and complex.
I certainly haven't seen the models that underpin these latest reports.
They generally do a SOTP DCF model, with a huge bunch of varied assumptions, usually measured against or in addition to industry EV/EBITDA multiples.
I.e Goldman Sachs use DCF and EV/EBITDa multiple. generally 85% / 15%:
- APLNG 50/50 on DCF and 6.0X EV/EBITDA
- Energy Markets (inc. corporate) 16.4 P/E multiple
- E&P DCF
A lot of the broker reports will include a fair bit of comms on their main drivers and assumptions.
I note a wide range of WACC employed by brokers, which can impact valuations quite dramatically
If there's anything specific you are after, I can dig it up (or at least try)
I certainly wouldn't blindly follow a broker, but I think consensus is a reasonable indicator. I guess its just another valuation perspective to agree or disagree with
Looking at the following chart of TP Vs closing price wont give you any confidence
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$10.38 |
Change
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Mkt cap ! $17.84B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$10.30 | $10.42 | $10.22 | $12.07M | 1.166M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
18 | 6287 | $10.38 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$10.39 | 4154 | 15 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
29 | 7791 | 10.390 |
22 | 14244 | 10.380 |
16 | 8961 | 10.370 |
13 | 12681 | 10.360 |
16 | 76607 | 10.350 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
10.400 | 1308 | 9 |
10.410 | 10679 | 14 |
10.420 | 12408 | 15 |
10.430 | 14852 | 16 |
10.440 | 19573 | 14 |
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