Mt C, surprised me on the downside while Oz surprised me to the upside. Together on the downside, but as I had mentioned the pricing together with the forecasts put to shame the $10K figures analysts are using. How much longer will the analysts fight to resist? The numbers blow away analyst estimates and this continues to be the ticking time bomb.
Cash on hand beat my estimates which is good. Money was spent on growth projects as estimated. I already flagged everyone to expect higher costs (not to be surprised today), but the higher costs at Mt C were much higher than my expectations. I have taken note of the transitional year Mt C will have in 23 before returning to normal in 24. Again just to reiterate, based on analyst numbers this is ok as sales blow away analyst forecasts. Inflation rate of 61% in Argentina is just so interesting when we compare it to Australia. It should put some confidence to holders that the company knows how to operate in a high inflation environment (still make lots of money).
One thing that I continue not to see is profit guidance for Borax. I wish that would be included. However, overall the guidance and data being provided across the board is much better than years past and allows for some good estimates to be put into spreadsheets, Now if only the analysts used the right sales prices we may have a much higher market cap.
Spod sales at 5.4% grade was higher than expectations so that was good. Knowing that it will be even higher this quarter is even better. When put into perspective of a 6.0% grade that is a good figure to be achieving. This data should support other spod miners in the sector with greater pricing confidence.
Oz2, Nahara and SDV going ok. When Oz2 and Nahara start putting runs on the board I expect some form of capital management to be put in place. Cash flow will be too strong without it, even after aggressively spending on growth projects.
That's my take. DYOR everyone.
BTW thanks to those that tried to build upon my attempt to spark some conversation yesterday. I was hoping more people would get involved and ideas would start flying left or right, but still those that did post, did present some good ideas and made a solid contribution. Thanks.
AKE Price at posting:
$9.80 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held