Ann: June 2022 Valuation Update and June Quarter Distribution, page-18

I haven't looked at SCG because retail REITS have been expensive for a long time.

At the current price of ~$4/s, it's implying a cap rate for CLWs properties of 5.7% and a look through gearing of 47% LVR.

They default on debt facilities if their LVR gets to 50%.

You don't have to go back many years for cap rates to be much higher than the implied 5.7% cap rate implied by the current share price.

When 10yr treasuries were at this level last in 2011/2014, yields on long wale assets were circa 8-9%.

If this were to occur again, which is now not a remote possibility, CLW equity holders will lose 50%+ of their money at best and likely much worse because of the raise being an institutional one and screwing retail.

There will be people thinking this is insane and impossible but the odds of this happening are now quite material , perhaps a 30% chance. Worse still, the upside at today's prices isn't much.