@volf I went through the 2008/9 disaster, heavily overweight in...

@volf I went through the 2008/9 disaster, heavily overweight in a supposedly-safe REIT and buying small dips near the top of the market. I wish I'd had access to advice like yours at the time. I'd been using MCW as a high interest term deposit. I'm grateful for your comments, which sum up the financial situation of REITs and implications better than I ever could. Thank you. I recommend investors read what you wrote, then read it again.

In my case, my holding of CLW is about 5% of my portfolio; and I'm about 66% in cash. I'm very glad I sold GPT at $4.95 a few months ago. If you're going to panic, panic early. I'm happy to increase my CLW holding by 10% at $4.00 and again at $3.50 if that transpires. I will NOT be chasing small dips in this. There are other opportunities emerging in this weak market. I reiterate your sentiments -- it's not a time to be overweight in REITs. If you're (only) 10% down and heavily overweight, it's not too late to take some money off the table and, if you want, put it back to work in REITs next year. You can be exposed to this sector without being so exposed you're practically naked.

I suspect rates will be getting cut aggressively in a few months time and CLW will rebound very strongly. One slightly better monthly US inflation report and rates can/will drop quickly, as happened a couple of months ago. Also, I don't recall that we had inflation in 2008/9. The replacement cost of these properties is high and rising. I wouldn't be surprised if our NTA in December is still around $6.17.

REITs are in a much healthier position this time but a liquidity crisis can emerge from nowhere. I don't accept your worst case scenario will transpire, but that could be because of a lack of financial knowledge on my part. I wouldn't have believed you in '08 either, to my detriment. A fool with a trading account and a little knowledge can be a danger to himself.

After being 90% down on Macquarie Countrywide in 2009 I can confirm it is *not* conducive to good mental health nor a situation to put one's self anywhere near. The only thing I did right in '09 (got lucky) was to buy a heap of shares at 90% down which turned out to be the bottom of the fall and held them until 2016. They were incredibly cheap compared to my buy price but I felt sick making that trade. It felt like flushing money down the toilet. Got out at break-even about 8 years later.

Everything you wrote about massive, dilutive cap raises, suspension of distributions, large discounts to NTA, inability to refinance loans, etc. happened in '09 exactly as you described.

Good luck to all.