So Rosencrantz, retorn and monark were all completely wrong and I right. Surprise surprise
And good thing that I bothered to even explain why I was going to be right. Because now you can run the numbers yourselves and see that my reasoning was spot on. This was no flip of a coin BS take or a lucky pick.
The oil prices they got were significantly lower than they forecast. $97 forecast, got $87. And all I did was actually bother to look at public pricing data to figure it out. It's not rocket science, is it retorn?
Below is their previous forecast in case you missed it. Guided $9.6m of OCF, got $7.5m. Guided $6.6m FCF got $3.7m. One question in their last webinar was specifically whether the latest market update was a downgrade, and the answer was no. Is that a porky pie?
They restated in this update that they need $25-35m of profit to maintain production. This quarter they produced $7.5m. So x4 is $30m, the mid point of the maintenance capital requirement. Tell me again how their realised June quarter price of oil is not also their break even price? You have to be braindead to try to argue against that.
Sure, oil prices are higher now than average of June quarter, but it really makes management stink. Where's the transparency?
I copy below my post.
And there are a few people on here who ask why the heck would someone who doesn't own CE1 come in here and post. Well, it's to try to save a few muppets some money. I wish I had someone like me posting here when I owned CE1 last year.
Just my opinions, do your own research...................
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