Putting aside the noise from the messy and confusing quarterly...

Putting aside the noise from the messy and confusing quarterly result (and I’m in the camp that there is some very creative accounting going on here - clearly they have deferred payables and treated it like debt)… the underlying result should…

….surprise no one… and is in line with what some of the more realistic parties on here have said - ie at around the wcs oil price of 55-60 this makes just enough to cover its stay in business capex. Flip side is every $5 wcs above that is about $10m pa extra cash flow (with cadusd 1.32 and cadaud at 0.88) rough rough so it’s very leveraged to oil prices. At $55/60m mkt cap that $5 wcs difference is the difference between a 20% fcf yield and 0% cc’d yield company. Per jophdas note I’m in here to make money and am long oil and believe what we are starting to see since late July is going to hang around for the next couple of years (it’s just take a while longer than expected to get here)

I think 65-70 wcs (equivalent of 80-85 wti) is a sweet spot and where oil needs to be to have a balanced market. (My view) and I think a $15 spread between the two is reasonable (noting both upside and downside risks to this spread). More upside than downside risk to oil prices for the next 5yrs imo - the world has pretty much navigated the higher interest rate environment now (with oil consumption growing notwithstanding the increase in rates)… imagine what it will do in 2-3yrs when all the central banks start cutting rates again….

short of it is I’m seeing this sep quarter on track to deliver about a$3-4m more fcf than the forecast a couple of days ago - which was based on a$87 oil price vs a$100
right now. Net debt (whichever way mgmt fudges it should then be between 0-3m)

hanging out for:
1- one of these PE crowds to buy out blackspur and pay us 10-15 cps (my more realistic view of a deal value that could be struck)
2. A montney deal in some form which will deliver a mix of cash and valuation upside