I calculate about $3.0 BN in Operating cashflow for the Year. To...

I calculate about $3.0 BN in Operating cashflow for the Year. To get that I used their YTD figures of USD avg sales price of $4,449 less CIF Opx Cost of $1,091 , used an avg conversion rate for year over last year of 0.675 which gives $4,975 margin per ton in AUD x 607.5 kt = $ 3.02 BN in operating cash margin.

According to their published definition, you deduct off that taxes paid/payable. FCF is normally a historic measure but here it looks like they want to add in the tax accruing on current year's profit instead of actual tax paid. That should be circa $ 0.80-0.90 BN, assuming NPBT is also around $3.0 BN. Will be some deductions off that figure for deprecation and G&A but looking at last years financials those 2 were in total about $80 M so wont move the needle on tax payable much lower especially now too when they are getting a handy income stream from all this cash sitting around on deposit.

Then in their definition they said we will take off sustaining capex. Their guidance here for sustaining capex this FY23 year was $ 72 M. Adding all of these together the figure for FCF on their definition comes out around $ 2.10 BN which if you went towards top of range you would be around $ 630 M in dividends . Less the $ 330 M they have already paid on the interim and would mean a final dividend of $ 300 M or around 10 cents per share. With the first dividend being $0.11 per share, I think they will not want to go lower than that figure as it looks a bit rubbish after such a good year , hence I believe they will just keep it at 11 cents for this final dividend too.

However say they do that, paying out another $ 330 M in dividends, same as the interim.That would still leave roughly $ 3.00 BN in the bank and even with say $ 0.80 BN tax bill to come for current year just finished leaves an unencumbered cash pile sitting there of $2.20 BN for the period up to June 30. They will want to keep a fair bit that for the longer term capex initiatives (P1000 & Calix ) but given the cash generation of the last qtr and I think prices now have probably bottomed, they probably don't need a full $2.20 BN sitting there particularly when they are continuing to earn $800 M per qtr and with the P1000 capex commitment at just over half a billion, so they might feel they have enough head room to pay a small special dividend to shareholders in lieu of a fantastic year in the bag.

If they don't pay out something a little extra given the huge pile of cash they are sitting on now, the only logical interpretation is they are wanting to keep some up their sleeve in reserve for M&A opportunities.