It wont be 40c FF for the interim - so the buyback reducing the number of shares on issue and therefore total cost of the dividend has nil impact? to give context if we pay the same dividend (32c) we are saving $17m or 2c a share... come the next dividend and continuation of the buyback you dont think 40c could be viewed as sustainable in light of the coal pricing and our balance sheet strenght?
Capex they spent $23.6m this quarter - we only need to earn 4.00% on the cash we have in the bank to fully pay this. feasable? tax deduction here too?
$130/t USD is still $185 AUD at 70c cross - we are hedged for part of this lower than 70c. costs likely to be around $105/t AUD = good profitable margin less tax $56/t or $728m less than your estimate above...
your EPS number seems to disregard the $1.85bn of tax paid cash ($2.30 per share) so you are likely sitting at $728 after tax earnings / $3bn after cash enterprise value or 4x earnings. Are you implying the board arent going to generate a ROE on this $2.3 a share and will just pay it out to shareholders fully franked?
We closed the quarter averaging around $170/t USD obviously this is going to trend down but did you see the pivot in the mix of coal? taken into account in your analysis?
I too have quite a bit of exposure to battery materials / clean energy / ESG and done very well there too, but I just dont think they are going to replace 'non-green' energy within 4 years (the actual earnings multiple) maybe partially in Australia but other markets (Asia) there is zero chance in my view...
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