I explained on my post above by facts and by Talison JV's own graphics and maps that Greenbushes expansion plan couldn't be executed and they would have to dig in the central lithium pit for high grade ore for keeping their costs low.
It's simply not possible to invest $3b for expansion and move the plant to other location without making any revenue for 2.5 years during new construction. Both ALB and Tianqi even can't get their lithium refineries in Kemerton and Kwinana respectively which they both invested billions of dollars on those refineries.
Therefore I don't think that they would be able to find $1.5b each to invest on expansion of Greenbushes mine. They would also loss billions of dollar of profits from the revenue loss during the construction. No it's not possible. I can't see any other option for them other than keep digging the existing pit. No technical professional can deny my opinion. Also we know that they have no intention to do that either.
Therefore their high grade ore will run out around 2031 according t my calculation which I have posted here many time before. It’s interesting that both ALB and Tianqi refineries in WA are not working properly and both claim technical issues and other things like labour etc.
Btw, we know that they both have refineries in China. As said on the article ALB finished its refinery in China 6 months ahead of schedule and got it working now.
We also know that both Kemerton and Kwinana refineries supplied by Metso machines but they didn’t get Metso service for commissioning. They both brough Chinese technical staff from China for making the commissioning. Then when they got issues and asked Metso to help them Metso reject their requests as far as I know.
Now I can’t believe 100% that the reason for no meaningful production from those plants could be really technical problems. If those Chinese tech staff can do it in China why they can’t get it done here! Or why they refused to pay Metso and got the plants working properly!
IS GREENBUSHES MINE WHICH IS UNDER CONTROL OF CHINESE TIANQI BEING USED TO FLOOD THE MARKET WITH LITHIUM AS MUCH AS THEY CAN?
The Greenbushes mine JV partners know very well that they will run out of high grade ore soon in 7-8 years, then why they are producing and selling as much as possible atm?
That's strange isn't it.
Let's make an analysis of Talison JV here because there is something very strange here.
Talison JV which owns the Greenbushes mine is controlled by Tianqi (51%).Tianqi is controlling its TLEA JV with IGO, then controls the Talison JV
There is something very strange here. First of all, as I said on my post IGO’s agreement with Tianqi on TEAL JV is strange; IGO has no freedom to get its spod concentrate share in JV and sell it freely to the spot market or to its own offtake customers (which is non). The agreement says; if there is excessive spod which won’t go to Kwinana plant for conversion it has to be sold to Tianqi China company as if Tianqi China is the sole offtake buyer of TEAL.
Greenbushes mine has a nameplate capacity for 1,400kt spod concentrate production. Each part of JV; ALB gets 50% of it and TEAL gets 50%. The 50% spod for each makes 700kt. They were both planning to process half these capacities (700kt) in their own refineries and the other half (700kt) would be sold to their own customers. (TEAL JV sell all that amount to Tianqi China company anyway). But that didn't happen as their refineries can't process nearly any spod. Nearly all of that 1,400kt spod is now being sent to China by both JV parties and flooding the Chinese market.
As you can see on the IGO Q2 2024 report above they both together sold 530kt SC6 spod to China in Q2. Just in one quarter..!
In Q1, they only sold 183kt to China. They produced 280kt in Q1 but they increased their production to 332kt in Q2 although they said they would reduce the production in Q2 if the sale price wouldn’t recover in Q2.They did the opposite.
I don’t believe it’s because they were scared of losing revenues. Because the control of GB mine is under Tianqi’s control, Tianqi has got the power to increase or decrease the production.
Because Tianqi is a Chinese company and Chinese government is controlling the lithium price atm, then increasing the production in GB is the decision of Chinese government IMO, just to lower the prices more.
(20min delay)