@dynofishvery good analysis mate.
Yes my analysis is based on that IGO document as you've already given.
2024 IGO released its updated Resources and Reserves Statement which can be found here…https://www.igo.com.au/site/pdf/483721a4-afe7-4723-a907-6efce0c66748/Greenbushes-CY23-Resources-and-Reserves.pdfI even sent my opinions about it by an email to Tim Goyder on 28/02/2024. It is as below. (He did not reply as I was expecting. He did not thank either as they were living in very hard days at that time). My purpose was only to assist to the company which I was a shareholder in. That's it.
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I wanted to give you some information about Greenbushes latest MRE. You might already have that info it but just in case I’m sending it with my comments. Because Albemarle made an offer to us before and I always believed Greenbushes has a very low mine life as its head grade for mining is being 2.7% for the recent years, I’m still watching Albemarle’s Greenbushes resources very closely as I believe Albemarle still needs to buy our KV project.
I believe Albemarle is still in tight position because the new MRE does not look to me that it’s economically viable even though it’s upgraded to 447Mt grading 1.5% Li2O at the end of CY23.
“In August 2023, Talison revised the Greenbushes MRE models to incorporate new drilling and other geoscientific information that its technical staff had collected since its prior MRE revisions in August 2021. This new information has significantly increased the Greenbushes MRE (on a 100% basis) from about 347Mt grading 1.5% Li2O on 31 December 2022 (CY22) to 447Mt grading 1.5% Li2O at the end of CY23”
I don’t think it’seconomically viable because according to this report Talison would need spendan infrastructure replacement cost of A$3.0 billion for moving much of thecurrent processing infrastructure and tailings located on the west side of themine. “Talison found that the resulting MRE optimisation shell did require therelocation of all current processing plants and part of the tailings storagefacility”.
Also again, the new pegmatites discovered in the new resource are not like classic sheet kind but kind of shootout columns of pegmatites. You can see them on the image attached. That requires a huge waste rock removal (strip ratio increased to 5.7:1 in the new MRE) and a huge open pit. They also talk about underground mining but not much in detail.
I also talked to my friends experienced in process plants that this kind of relocation of process facility is very difficult and it will take 2.5 years at least to start the production. (their current 3 train process facilities are already very tightly build in small spaces). I don’t think Talison JV would be happy to do that. The next 3-5 years will be the fastest years of lithium production in my opinion. Being idle in these years would be a stupid decision.
I think your technical people will find out more I they have a look at this report.
I’m now thinking that Talison JV is strategically in very hard position and have to make a decision to find a supply source to their Kemerton (ALB) and Kwinana plants (Tianqi-IGO JV). Otherwise they can’t just use 2.7% high grade ore to produce 1.4mt per annum spod concentrate. That high grade ore will be run out around 2031.
So Albemarle still needs our KV Project in my opinion.
Best regards.
(20min delay)