PIQ proteomics international laboratories ltd

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Ann: June 2024 Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 4C, page-6

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Lostdollar23

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31/07/24

23:02

Post #: 75015811
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Originally posted by janjaan: ↑

Assumptions for Valuation with PromarkerD Commercialization:
Market Penetration and Revenue:
Total Addressable Market (TAM): In the USA, there are approximately 32 million people with type 2 diabetes.
Adoption Rate: Assume a conservative adoption rate of 5% over the next five years.
Revenue per Test: The test price is set at USD $390.75 (as per the CMS reimbursement).
Revenue Calculation:
Yearly Tests: Assume each diabetic undergoes the test once per year.
Annual Revenue: 32 million * 5% * $390.75 = $624.96 million in annual revenue from the USA alone by FY29.
Profit Margins:
Assume a net profit margin of 20% due to economies of scale and operational efficiencies.
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio:
Assume a P/E ratio of 25, reflecting the high growth potential and market optimism.
Financial Projections:
Revenue Projections from USA:
By FY29: A$624.96 million (approximately USD $390.75 million with an exchange rate of 1 USD = 1.6 AUD)
Net Income Projections:
Net Income: 20% of A$624.96 million = A$124.992 million
Fair Share Price Estimation:
Projected EPS (Earnings Per Share) in FY29: A$124.992 million / 100 million shares = A$1.25 per share (assuming the number of shares remains constant).
Fair Share Price in FY29: A$1.25 * 25 (P/E ratio) = A$31.25
Conclusion:
If PromarkerD gains commercialization in the USA and achieves the projected market penetration and revenue, the fair share price of Proteomics International Laboratories Ltd (ASX: PIQ) could potentially reach around A$31.25 over the next five years.
This estimate assumes successful market penetration, consistent adoption rates, and no significant operational hurdles. Real-world factors such as competition, regulatory changes, and market acceptance could affect these projections.

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Your calculation of 5% uptake assumes that PIQ get the full amount of the reimbursement. This will not be the case.

The tests will be administered by sonic and PIQ will get a royalty payment per test, in the range of industry standard 5-15%. So let's assume 10%.

PIQ revenue will be roughly 62mil a year at a 5% uptake, not 620mil
Last edited by Lostdollar23: 31/07/24

PIQ Price at posting: 90.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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