Ann: June 2024 Quarterly Activities Report, page-136

Ubs

Pilbara Minerals
Still downside to price

Strong production (again) with FY25 guidance in-line but price outlook weak PLS reported Jun-Q spodumene production of 226kt beating expectations and the topend of FY24 guidance (725kt vs 660-690kt). Sales of 236kt were even stronger with March ships slipping into April. However, a realised price of US$840/t was ~14% below our expectations on sales timing and reflecting the weak market conditions. We have trimmed earnings on slightly higher costs and D&A which sees EPS -10%/-4%/-7% over FY25/26/27E and, after including more development capital, our NPV based price target is down 4% to A$2.50/sh. Unlike PLS, we are concerned about the lack of cost support for prices and retain a Sell rating.