WHC

0.39%

$7.80 whitehaven coal limited

That all.depenrs on coal prices though, both would look worse if...

First 113 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
alex123711

600 Posts.

23

24/07/24

07:23

Post #: 74884147
Share

Originally posted by Cashmeoutside: ↑

This is a big claim to make. And what is 60% overvalued - the equity or the EV? Cos it is the equity you’re buying…

YAL the past quarter realised a price of A$181/t and we know their costs are around A$96/t.. so call EBITDA margins A$85/t, allow some deductions for capex, corporate and tax and perhaps A$50/t FCF on 35mtpa equity sales is A$1.75bn or A$1.33/sh.

WHC thermal Ops realised A$207/t - which is +A$26/t on YAL but we know costs are around A$16/t more expensive here (at the moment but let’s assume it stays that way). So A$95/t margins, make the same allowances for capex, corp, taxes and A$60/t FCF on 13mtpa equity sales is $800m or A$1/sh.

WHC Met Ops is a bit unknown - we know they’re realising almost A$70/t higher prices than thermal (A$271/t) but costs are likely in the order of A$40-A$50/t more expensive. So add net $25/t margins to the thermal margins and you’re at A$110/t margins, perhaps A$75/t FCF on 15mtpa equity sales (A$1.40/sh).

So here you have WHC making A$2.40/sh on the above math and YAL A$1.33/sh.. almost double the earnings (cash flow) per share but YAL is trading at ~$7/sh and WHC ~$8/sh.

What I’ve obviously missed here is the cash/debt positions along with deferred and contingent payments over the short term. But that all gets resolved out of near term earnings.

My point being here that WHC has nearly double the EPS in a couple years time to YAL (on my figures above, happy to hear why they’re wrong) and it’s EPS as SHAREHOLDERS that should matter. Yes there is a deleveraging process that needs to occur here before the earnings per share make their way into shareholders pockets (via dividends per share) but that’s just a timing thing.

What would you rather - A$1.33/sh out for foreseeable future or zero for the next 2years and then A$2.40/sh for the foreseeable future (plus first on costs you A$7 and second A$8).

Expand

That all.depenrs on coal prices though, both would look worse if they continue going down

WHC Price at posting: $7.91 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

TRP

Tissue Repairs soars nearly 32% on TGA approval for wound healing gel

NVA

Nova locks in NASDAQ US market listing at a value of only US$3.3M as ASX gets quieter and quieter

Capital raisings wrap: Brainchip, Ovanti, Lake and VHM

ASX Market Open: ASX200 to rise for Friday session | July 26

MIN

MinRes jumps 5% as the company meets production guidance – depressed iron ore prices be damned

RHK

Red Hawk upgrades Blacksmith with DSO mineral resource at the Eagle Deposit

HRZ

Horizon firms up ore reserve for Boorara ahead of FY25 Q1 development decision

MND

Monadelphous inks $200M contract with Woodside to help build Pluto LNG – but will it make Scarborough cheaper?

Nine's staff strike as Paris Olympic coverage begins

IGO

IGO kicks off earn-in copper drilling on-site Encounter's Yeneena play as it adopts new identity

There are more pages in this discussion • 13 more messages in this thread...

First 113 Last

Add WHC (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last $7.80		Change 0.030(0.39%)		Mkt cap ! $6.525B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$7.82	$7.95	$7.74	$34.20M	4.362M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	3528	$7.77

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$7.81	12070	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	3528	7.770
1	2000	7.760
3	14000	7.750
3	4825	7.740
2	5500	7.730

Price($)	Vol.	No.
7.900	4356	1
7.940	5710	2
7.950	11787	3
7.980	970	1
7.990	13167	4

Last trade - 16.10pm 26/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

WHC (ASX) Chart

That all.depenrs on coal prices though, both would look worse if...

Tissue Repairs soars nearly 32% on TGA approval for wound healing gel

Nova locks in NASDAQ US market listing at a value of only US$3.3M as ASX gets quieter and quieter

Capital raisings wrap: Brainchip, Ovanti, Lake and VHM

ASX Market Open: ASX200 to rise for Friday session | July 26

MinRes jumps 5% as the company meets production guidance – depressed iron ore prices be damned

Red Hawk upgrades Blacksmith with DSO mineral resource at the Eagle Deposit

Horizon firms up ore reserve for Boorara ahead of FY25 Q1 development decision

Monadelphous inks $200M contract with Woodside to help build Pluto LNG – but will it make Scarborough cheaper?

Nine's staff strike as Paris Olympic coverage begins

IGO kicks off earn-in copper drilling on-site Encounter's Yeneena play as it adopts new identity

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

That all.depenrs on coal prices though, both would look worse if...

Top Stories

Tissue Repairs soars nearly 32% on TGA approval for wound healing gel

Nova locks in NASDAQ US market listing at a value of only US$3.3M as ASX gets quieter and quieter

Capital raisings wrap: Brainchip, Ovanti, Lake and VHM

ASX Market Open: ASX200 to rise for Friday session | July 26

MinRes jumps 5% as the company meets production guidance – depressed iron ore prices be damned

Red Hawk upgrades Blacksmith with DSO mineral resource at the Eagle Deposit

Horizon firms up ore reserve for Boorara ahead of FY25 Q1 development decision

Monadelphous inks $200M contract with Woodside to help build Pluto LNG – but will it make Scarborough cheaper?

Nine's staff strike as Paris Olympic coverage begins

IGO kicks off earn-in copper drilling on-site Encounter's Yeneena play as it adopts new identity

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News