I understand the positives from a macro perspective, as well as management highlighting the throughput they could put through the facility in Henderson without significant Capex, but if we come back to something a little more concrete, then $35m order backlog (and no significant contract annoucnement since Nov last year) does not seem to align with all that positivity.
What is even more concerning is if as you say, their 2 main competitors have record order backlogs......if Matrix is the leader in this field, why aren't they in a similar situation?
They booked ~35m in revenues in 2H23 and made a loss of ~$2m for that half......so my point is that perhaps if they deliver the full $35m in Surf contracts plus ~$5m in Corrosion & Advanced materials, then they may be marginally profitable in 1H25, but that seems a long way from the positivity mgmt reflected on the call and certainly leaves a great deal of uncertainty for FY25 and going forward.
Perhaps we might see that situation change in the next 2-3 mths with some concrete contract announcements, IMO this company has been burning shareholder money and making losses since ~FY2015 (which I believe was the last time booked a profit).....so yes the FY24 number is not to be discounted, but I'd be a little skeptical on what mgmt can actual deliver given their track record
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