The other thing I'm trying to work out is the message mix between what is said about steel vs. Iron ore.
If China doesn't want the iron ore, there must to be other places that would accept it if Steel prices are high. If Steel has a good predicted run through the remainder of the year .... unless there's enough scrap for the steel industry to use - you'd expect Iron Ore to be supported.

Am I missing anything here?

US Steel’s ‘best days ahead’: Burritt

US Steel has its best days ahead, the company's top executive said during an earnings call on Friday July 30.

“We can now truly say, US Steel... has its best days ahead. We can't get to the future fast enough,” company president and chief executive officer David Burritt said on Friday’s call. Burritt also said that the strength in steel prices and demand would continue, and predicted all-time records for US Steel in the third quarter. “Demand from our customers continues and lead times remain extended,” Burritt said. "The industry, including here at US Steel, has several planned outages in the second half of 2021. And low steel industry inventory levels suggest an extended restocking period still needs to take place, supporting steel consumption into the future.” Improved shipments and record-high hot-band prices pushed US Steel’s second-quarter net income to $1.012 billion
https://do not advertise external sites/Article/4001488/statistics/US-Steels-best-days-ahead-Burritt.html

Brazilian steel consumption to grow 24% in 2021 - Aço Brasil

The Brazilian steel institute Aço Brasil increased its forecast for apparent steel consumption in 2021, predicting a growth of 24.10% from the previous year.

Apparent steel use is now estimated to reach 26.61 million tonnes this year, compared with 21.45 million tonnes in 2020, the association said on Thursday July 22. The figure is also higher than May’s forecast of 24.66 million tonnes.
Main steel consuming sectors - including construction, white goods, capital goods and trucks - have been performing better than expected this year.

“We are seeing very strong signs of a recovery in activity in..

https://do not advertise external sites/Article/3999860/statistics/Brazilian-steel-consumption-to-grow-24-in-2021-Ao-Brasil.html