Some updated NPV guesses...In March '21 LKE updated their PFS to...

Some updated NPV guesses...

In March '21 LKE updated their PFS to use $15,500 pt price assumption and 25,500 pa production. This resulted in post tax NPV = US$1.58bn = A$1.79 per share.

If production is upgraded to 50,000 pa, then I calc revised NPV at US$2.93bn = A$3.27 per share

$15,500 price assumption is looking increasingly conservative. If we use $18,594 (which is what GLN used in their Jan '22 revised PFS) then LKE's NPV rises further to US$3.81bn = A$4.24 per share.

Arguably GLN's price assumption is also conservative. Roskill's long term assumption = $25,000. Using this figure, then LKE's NPV rises further to US$5.65bn = A$6.24 per share.

NB current Li prices are +$50,000 - but no-one should be using anything like this in their long term calc IMO.

NB these NPV's ascribe zero value to LKE's holdings in Cauchari or Olaroz, which could easily add another US$1bn to its NPV (ie another +A$1.00 per share)

Another way to look at it, using 50,000 tpa production and $18,594 price, (my favoured set of assumptions) and LKE's forecast of cash costs of $4,178, then by 2028 when I think full production capacity should be reached, then LKE will be spitting out close to A$1bn in pre tax cash flow (compared to current EV of around A$1.1bn)