I've been staring at your post trying to unpack it all. I think...

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InformedButDumb

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16/06/22

09:32

Post #: 62028286
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Originally posted by steve10: ↑

The big picture for next 12 months is as follows:

$20M pa current logistics revenue x (8% fuel levy + 10% price rise = 18%) = $23.6M pa x 30% pa organic growth = $30.7M x 58% margin = $17.8M GP.

With the big players on board the 2,500 Kaddy customers will be able to order Pernod Ricard, Diageo, CUB, Asahi, Lion, Negociants etc all via Kaddy in leau of separately via all the different suppliers. It sounds like pricing will be more competitive too.

GMV is about $20M pa now & should grow to around $100M rapidly with the big brands onboarded. About 20% of GMV will be smaller suppliers so $20M x 5% = $1M revenue & 80% of GMV will be larger suppliers so $80M x 1.25% = $1M revenue with average GMV fee of 2% similar to Spiritrade in UK. Possibly 50 larger suppliers x $3k pa fees = $150k. Total marketplace revenue of $2.15M. Allow about $1M revenue for FY23 as the $2.15M is run rate after a year.

Total expenses will be $5M per quarter with cost savings announced = $20M pa - $17.8M fulfilment GP - $1M GP marketplace GP = $1.2M cash burn. More cost savings are also expected & nil revenue for advertising has been allowed for.

With the lower fee structure averaging out at 2% using the 80:20 rule they should get all of the 20% total market share small players & 20% market share big players. That's 100% of the 20% = 20% & 20% of the 80% = 16% for a total of 36% market share. 80% of total market will be dominated by big players who will most likely be dealing direct with their largest customers accounting for 80% of the 80% volume = 64%.

5% GMV market share = $1B thus 36% GMV market share = $7.2B x 2% fees = $144M pa.

With fulfilment the big players will have their own logistics infrastructure so allow a maximum of 10% market share. 5% market share equated to 9M cases pa thus 10% market share = 18M cases pa. Was $14 per case x 1.18 fuel levy/price rise = $16.52 x 18M = $297.36M x 58% margin = $172.47M GP.

Plus subscription & advertising revenue which is mostly GP. That's the big picture if they are successful. We'll wait & see what happens.

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I've been staring at your post trying to unpack it all.

I think the gist is logistics revenue will increase at a healthy 30% pa. Marketplace revenue has the opportunity to accelerate assuming Kaddy creates an attractive proposition for trade buyers to actively engage here.

For my own understanding I've extracted key numbers for TTM (trailing twelve months) and NTM (Next Twelve Months).

Meaning at current share price, Price/Sales(NTM) = 1.13.

DW8 Price at posting: 1.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
7 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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