You could be right - but if you are then that is the compelling investment opportunity that you have today
It is rare that you can judge an acquisition in its first year. They have bought it for ~7 years of mine life, they are likely to extend this with even a modicum of exploration success (and with the exploration AMI team, and their incredible success, they have earnt the benefit of the doubt). Maybe gold doubles and Dargues throws off cash, maybe they hit the motherload in year 4 and everyone's bickering looks crazy in hindsight. Take the worse case. Write it down today and sell it for $50m. Does the value of the other assets change? No. Maybe Dargues shouldn't even enter your mind. Just put it down as a zero and focus on the real value in the portfolio.
Great Copper: Just use Peel (PEX) with a $100m market cap as a comparison. They own 50% of Mallee Bull which is roughly 7mt at 2% Cu equivalent with no mill, no infrastructure etc...Great Copper (before yesterday's outstanding drill results) is 5.8mt at approx 3% copper, with a mill and infra nearby and 100% ownership. Let's call it $200m, but maybe we just call it $100m to be very conservative..
Peak: Mining Kairos, costs will come down, finding more gold and copper etc. Easily makes $100-150m pa of EBITDA. Let's be crazy and just put 2x EBITDA call it $300m.Hera: Let's just say it washes it face and give it close to zero value. The mill is very valuable, and may be used in the early years of Federation, but lets stay crazy and zero the damn thing. Stay with me.
Federation: Just over 5mt of circa 7-8g/t of gold equivalent resources. That would make it the third richest grade gold mine in Australia after Forrestville and BGL. Resources are growing, and after yesterday, maybe that average grade is going up again. The real resource growth will come after the decline goes in and they can drill from UG. BGL is a good example....9mt at close to 10 g/t, but no nearby mill and very thin seams..market cap of $850m. Federation may end up bigger, but lets just stay crazy and say that Federation is just under 50% at $400m of value.
$800m sum of the parts using a fire sale approach.
Maybe it should be broken up and sold?.
My view is that would be unwise. Just take another look at last year's results...improvements in safety, operations, environment, record gold.e production and record growth in resources. Oh yeah....a lazy 50% increase in cash flow to $185m Maybe most investors just want to be told the spin, and don't want a management team to be conservative, but that is possibly what we have here.
An unloved stock that is trading at roughly 2x cashflow, with rapidly growing upside in one of Australia's best discoveries.It is unloved - but isn't that what you are all looking for?
I agree, painful watching this thing go sideways (actually downwards), but take a leaf from Buffett and turn the ticker off and come back in 1 year.
One final thing - maybe just compare AMI to DVP, BB's base metal play....$400m for a 17mt undeveloped UG resource of circa 2% copper equivalent. Very good chance that Great Copper may be better than this and you can buy a ticket to benefit if it does.
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