A few notes:
AL's AGM comments re a "clean" license, completely free of restrictions, would suggest Lynas LAMP C&L can be run up to capacity going forward.
From 1:04:12 >
Comment back around 2016 as all four SX trains were getting up to steady state suggested the kilns were way over engineered (fortunately also the gas scrubbers) and could theoretically make 240% "nameplate" 22ktpa TREO, a number that still sounds massive, but reflect a number of subsequent comments reporting two kilns running hot, one warm stand by and one cold. Suggests the bulk of production to date has largely from two kilns operating but suffice to say reasonable indications LAMP C&L can run well above Next 7200tpa NdPr.
The other consideration in support is the growth in Ce discard promoting a higher proportion of NdPr recovery. From MtW in-situ 23.5% they initially recovered 26/28%, then 30/32%, past two years 36%, with high chance that will increase significantly FY25. Why would they want to step up Ce production in line with the massive projected increase NdPr when they dump large volumes Ce & LaCe carbonate into China ~50c kg and upset the natives in the process.
Suspect one reason we've seen little detail LAMP expansion, or CapEx breakout, is that a big part of the upgrade is simply swapping larger LaCe SX assets across to NdPr two trains at a time, and they haven't wanted to telegraph it.
I'll suggest the now built C&L capacity (largest CapEx in total process) has been factored in line with AL's stated expansion steps 10.5 + 1.5 + 2.4 + 2.4 = 16.8ktpa and if you go back 2 minutes in the AGM video above AL mentions seven NdFeB projects currently proposed in the US which would suggest a second train Tx will be announced before the first is completed which would round up the C&L target ~18ktpa.
Makes no sense to rack up all those NdPr targets only to find you are short capacity in the most expensive critical stage.
Additionally, any future SX Kal highly likely large primary SX circuits to stream SEG/HRE, NdPr & LaCe as individual carbonates proportionally to the SX facilities, efficiencies quite obvious, not least further opportunity Ce discard.
Fair amount of supposition there of course, does make sense to build out the backbone well before various incremental expansions timed to mkt, raises the Q where will they find another 6ktpa feedstock but very much doubt thaty Q is keeping AL awake at night.
AGM may mark a seminal moment in Lynas development, they've largely dealt with perhaps four areas of sovereign risk past few years, not least Malaysia, established the C&L backbone for most of this decade, expanded the geographical footprint which will help stimulate downstream demand, current pricing will clearly slow competition while consumables pricing has dropped well back from recent highs, SP likely to follow NdPr near term but what an ideal time of reduced demand for Lynas to tie in all its expansion projects before the next upturn.
Strong sense there a great LT buying opportunity approaching some point H1 24CY.
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