The market unfortunately doesn't react rationally and won't put any real value on the potential in advance of execution and delivery of the cash flow.
Great to see everything lining up very closely with the EA assumptions.
Whilst a big picture calculation is easy. The actual AISC on a monthly basis will vary with volume processed and feed grade. The charts in the ES show how feed grade and volume processed are likely to vary.
The head line figures of 589 tonnes of Cu produced will likely deliver a cash surplus before capex and corporate costs of circa $2m
The plant is currently operating at about 20% capacity so the fixed Care and Maintenance component of processing will be chewing up about $ 300k more than the AISC estimate.
Exploration is of course a manageable cost as is mine development.
Important to realise that mine development won't necessarily stall during months 5 and 15 as shown in the first slide. That would have been driven by the desire/need to quickly repay the debt funding that was originally proposed.
Mine development also won't cease in month 28 as indicated in that first slide and will likely grow at a much faster rate than indicated as the cash becomes available and plans to fill the plant fall into place.
The forecast was for cash flow to stay negative until month 10 with the $25m negative amount being clawed back over the next 5 months.
Plans of course change and it appears production and costs are running close to plan.We will have a better idea after the quarterly update lands. With copper price initially below forecast but now rising above the potential is for CAPEX to be managed and funded from free cash flow going forward.
Not having to repay a $25m debt has taken a lot of the pressure off.
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