Stating the obvious, but it's hardly beautiful timing. Everyone wanted to some free cash flow generation in the June quarter to take the heat off the first scheduled debt repayment and take advantage of the current healthy spot price. Now it looks like it's going to come down to the performance of the iron ore price in the September quarter.
It also seems that the latest finance structure for GBG's portion of KML indicates there is not much appetite for fresh GBG equity amongst local institutions.
I think there's another 3 months of nail biting for investors.
Sure, some will point to the assets of the company, but good assets can be deemed worthless by the market if they cannot generate positive cash flow over a short time frame. Like others, I've been on the wrong end of mining investments where multiple events conspire to squeeze a company into admin, only to see those assets flourish under a new owner a few years down the track. I hope that doesn't happen here, but in my opinion, it's going to come down to blind luck.
GBG Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held