So I have some feedback on my estimated analysis. Revenue and costs are too low. They weren't prepared to say by how much so I can't adjust with any certainty.
Nevertheless, if Gindalban is right that GBG will burn about $A40M a month in the commissioning and ramp-up phase and it is completed end Jul'13 then KML would have $35M in the bank at the end of Sept'13 and so would not be able to pay China Bank interest of $50M without further funding from GBG and Ansteel which may be possible with GBG having $35M as of end Apr'13. Having said that, I don't know if Gindalban's estimate is correct and in the absence of accurate information from KML, we can only wait and trust KML's judgement here - to pursue more pre-payments from Ansteel and a new payment schedule from China Bank to derisk their financial position.
I'm not going to try to estimate GBG's/KML's cash position anymore since there are too many variables, uncertainties and insufficient information in this business to be confident about accuracy. Back to watching shipping numbers and GBG announcements. sdo
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