Nothing is for sure. They may have a 80 or 90% chance in my opinion. Ongoing trouble would manifest in different problems and high AISC in the $1000 region. Each investor should have his own estimate of probabilities.
IMO exploration will ultimately lead to a 50% increase in resources because they have artisanal pits with 70k ounces of historical production. There is more potential with high probability but also high costs at depth.
Then there is potential to increase resources maybe 200% from new pits which I estimate to be very low.
As no positive resolve at any of those fronts is priced in it is only upside from here in my opinion (considering fundamentals not necessarily short term share price).
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