"Will there be sufficient production to deliver into the...

"Will there be sufficient production to deliver into the committed hedges?"

Interesting point.

As at 30 June 2016 gold forward sales maturing within 12 months equalled 48,000oz at $US1,103.50

Group gold production for the Sept Quarter 2016 = 13,329oz

Guidance for CY16 now expected to be between 63,000 and 65,000oz.

Gold produced for the six months to 30 June 2016 equalled 34,740oz

Gold production for 2016 CY to Sept = 34,740oz + 13,329oz = 48,069oz

2016 CY guidance - production to Sept = range 14,931oz to 16,931oz

So TRY will have second half CY 2016 production of between 26,658 oz to 30,260oz if they meet current guidance which represents between 55% and 63% of their full 2016/2017 FY gold forward sales.

They have the forward gold sales covered based on current guidance but they certainly couldn't afford a new problem.

The average daily LBMA gold price between 1 July 2016 and 30 Dec 2016 was $US 1,275.19 per oz. So if the company comes in at mid range of guidance it will have produced 29,260oz in this same time with a mark to market loss on forward sales of at maximum ~$5 million for those 6 months (if my calcs are correct).

TRY is probably a good long run buy at this price if one can discount the question of insolvency completely. Given the spate of problems since the mine started I don't think you can necessarily make this assumption so for me it is stay away no matter how tempting the share price might seem.

The silence from the company is deafening.

Eshmun

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