No, I don't think so. Because of timing. Do you think they will do a capital raise before the meeting?
The operational update explains why we are currently below the liquidity limit. It also explains that mining performance in August was excellent and that we will see better performance in September. With September itself being cash flow positive. This is all before a capital raise could happen. And they even hint at a renewed Austral deal in order to improve short-term finances.
Seems even my estimate of capital need was too high. I had expected mining in Smarts 3 to start in December. Although probably they mean 80k tonnes total mine performance and not from Smarts 3 (although Smarts 3 is the largest pit and could provide 70-80% of that tonnage).
All they need to do is renegotiate the Investec facility, already half-way through. Getting the money from Casposo up-front would make sense anyway. If there is a capital raise it will be the 38m shares still available after renegotiating. Not really needed but a favor to Investec and better safe than sorry. Maybe the shares will go to Elsztain.
It looks like the Investec options will be back in the money soon.
We will see how it turns out. I have pledged my full support to the new chairman and indicated that diluting current shareholders - if unavoidable - is no problem. John Jones still has shares in the company and is in the same position as other shareholders. They should concentrate on running the company, so far I am very happy given the limitations they are operating under.
TRY Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
