1. The most important revelation today was that there are no further cost increases. An excellent presentation shows that clearly. Replacing the Ford facility with longer term debt alleviated some of my anxiety with the headline rumours.
2. In my view, there has been a very conservative approach by the Board to building up a liquidity buffer, and planning for slow progress on shipments, thus a need for a chunky WC line.
3. Another Board might have continued to run with a debt only solution, but I cannot be too critical of the relatively modest equity component. Personally, if lenders would have allowed, I might have been inclined to take a debt only approach now (little to no buffer), with an equity piece in Q1, based on further construction updates. But hard to be too critical.
4. I suspect though that in true Aussie stockbroker fashion, as soon as that conservatism of an equity raising became likely, the shorters took control, and drove the discount out of the ball park. All in one of the worst recent weeks for risk.
5. In my humble view, $1.80 does not represent any credible view on value. We clearly know both ALB and Gina see making a motza by ONLY paying $3, and nothing in today's presso would change their mind. (The CR dilution is immaterial).
6. Stupid Aussie market does suggest, particularly with a slow burn SPP, that price falls to CR price. However, I feel this is different, particularly given the relatively small scale of the CR to enterprise value, and the day by day increase in underlying value as construction risk is tackled.
7. Sellers below $2.20 should be few in my view, particularly after proper digestion of the presentation. For the first time we have specific dates attached to specific activities, and it is not hard to envisage some acceleration in overall commissioning.
8. The other wildcard is further strategic activity. The main reason I chose not to sell some @$3 was this possibility, as well as incurring major tax leakage. Why wouldn't Gina now bid @$3 (my understanding, she cannot bid below that price for 4 months). Why wouldn't ALB stand in market @2.25 and seek 15% (I very much doubt that level of stake would be available)? Why wouldn't Rio or BHP or Sumi do the same?
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