Batman - Nice post You are right , Goyder is the new Gina and...

Batman - Nice post You are right , Goyder is the new Gina and will block any bid from her if the offer is below expectation.

So what is the expectation.. well Gina for the next 4 months can only off a TO from $3 for the next 4 months under ASX rules. So what does Gina do. As she is at 19.9% any purchase of any shares triggers a full TO.

Gina has to be very nice to the Board if she wants this short term ... and she really wants more than 19.9%. Working for her is the share price being at $1.80-$1.90 which should remain at be until the AGM / share placement gets sorted. Her offer will be north of $3. She knows that if her bid is made at $3.20 or $3.50 the board will probably support as they supported ALB at $3 plus it looks very superior against $1.80. But every day she waits LTR gets closer to commissioning and then production. The share price will grow. Longer Gina waits her offer doesn't look like one we could refuse of she will have to offer way more and Gina doesnt like paying overs she loves cheap.

In Gina being nice I would suspect she is in discussions with Goyder about what could work. Gina may call on RIO to go JV and maybe go for 50%. Goyder will like this as LTR go mining and Divi's and holders will get a nice chunk of cash for this. JV at $3.20 to $3.50 for 50% if made in the next 6 weeks I think this would be successful.

I think all other strategies Goyder will block

So Gina in the short term cant steal the company cheaply - longer term post 4 months LTR price will be back up around $3 as more risk is removed and the mine is operating or very close to it. She cant really call on Ellison as he cant buy 15% on market as there isnt enough stock out there to buy as any one who sold has done at $3 so to get any volume to get to a sizeable chunk say 15%-18% the price will go up quickly causing pain for Gina as she want to keep the price low.

Now Goyder holds the aces and Tony saying we are working through Christmas LTR will speed fast towards completing KV build and get mining and with this SP growth and protecting LTR from TO unless its mind boggling

Just a thought but go Goyder !!!!!