LTR

4.15%

92.5¢ liontown resources limited

Ann: Kathleen Valley Funding Package, page-595

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pastperformer

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23/10/23

15:27

Post #: 70487563
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Originally posted by Scarpa: ↑

Thanks for this and agree.

I decided to some high level calcs as well. The interesting thing for me is as follows:

1. If spodumene prices are above US$2000 per tonne in production, the debt facility would be paid of from one year profit, assuming other metrics remain on target. I haven't included interest in my calcs below for this fact, which by default means that all profits be used to pay debt first, and dividends happen only after the debt facility is paid off. It is a high level analysis.

In terms of the below, I assumed average costs are around A$800 per tonne, just decided make it higher than what they are assuming. The analysis below assumes just a 3 mtpa facility producing 600,000 tpa of 6% grade spodumene concentrate, and the numbers are just one year only profit (so nominal $ life profit is the annual figure * mine life).

At a high level, just indicative as expect over project life production expansions, and probably using retained earnings to move to downstream processing. Obviously spodumene price a key, as is the opex cost, and recovery rate that achieves 600,000 tpa of concentrate - hence these are the key risks in any analysis. (Red font cells are the input cells).

I thought the royalty rate in WA for spodumene is 5%, which is what I used? Western Australia spodumene producers welcome tax reprieve scheme - FastmarketsI also feel PE 8 might be low, as some operate on PE 10, but that is fine too. Suspect the PE of PLS for example is above 8 as well???

Appreciate your work and I know mine is not up to your level but indicative (and I am supportive of your calcs anyway).

With VB in hand will now add All IMO IMO IMO

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Those numbers look accurate to me.

I guess what this highlights though is that LTR is close to fully valued given there are still significant project and operational risks. They still haven't produced SC6 after all.

LTR Price at posting: $1.82 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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Last 92.5¢		Change -0.040(4.15%)		Mkt cap ! $2.243B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
94.0¢	95.0¢	92.0¢	$8.521M	9.153M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
26	369258	92.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
93.0¢	5600	2

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
17	161831	0.925
36	434133	0.920
14	290407	0.915
40	708990	0.910
14	423032	0.905

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.930	3600	1
0.935	67300	2
0.940	15000	2
0.945	30000	1
0.950	110600	9

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Ann: Kathleen Valley Funding Package, page-595

Week 31 Wrap: JORC rules to get tougher; RBA rate hike chance 50/50; US Fed Sept cut still the quo

Collaboration in a green (steel) future the focus for Magnum and Saudi partners

Vmoto sales plummet -50% YoY as weak demand in Europe & China stifles EV scooter sales growth

Venture to sniff out high-grade REE targets at Jupiter project, WA

Westgold sets its sights on top five producer status through merger with Karora

Commodity house Trafigura funds Develop Global's copper-zinc Woodlawn play with offtake deal in place

Is oil undervalued?

GreenX picks up prospective copper project in Germany

Uranium prices on the NYMEX are stable, but ASX uranium stocks are sinking on Friday. The answer lies in Kazakhstan

Cost blow-out for Rook I uranium project sees share plummet for NexGen

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Ann: Kathleen Valley Funding Package, page-595

Top Stories

Week 31 Wrap: JORC rules to get tougher; RBA rate hike chance 50/50; US Fed Sept cut still the quo

Collaboration in a green (steel) future the focus for Magnum and Saudi partners

Vmoto sales plummet -50% YoY as weak demand in Europe & China stifles EV scooter sales growth

Venture to sniff out high-grade REE targets at Jupiter project, WA

Westgold sets its sights on top five producer status through merger with Karora

Commodity house Trafigura funds Develop Global's copper-zinc Woodlawn play with offtake deal in place

Is oil undervalued?

GreenX picks up prospective copper project in Germany

Uranium prices on the NYMEX are stable, but ASX uranium stocks are sinking on Friday. The answer lies in Kazakhstan

Cost blow-out for Rook I uranium project sees share plummet for NexGen

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

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